Tuesday 4 Nov is Budget Day in Canada.
Budgets don’t matter in Defence.
Well, budgets do. The Budget doesn’t.
Most of Canada’s Department of National Defence (DND)’s funding is already baked into the fiscal framework. So, when the Budget is tabled each spring (or, in this case, Nov 4), you rarely see large new DND spending lines - because the department already operates under a multi-year allocation established through prior policy decisions like Strong, Secure, Engaged (SSE) and now Our North, Strong and Free (ONSAF).
Still, from a defence perspective, tomorrow’s Federal Budget might matter.
When ONSAF was released, the government positioned the increase as “moving Canada toward 2% of GDP,” with no specific timeline. Post-election, Prime Minister Mark Carney made it a hard commitment by 31 Mar.
This is where the Nov 4 Budget becomes pivotal. While the DND base budget is already allocated, Finance Canada will have to show a credible path to 2% (above and beyond the reclassification of previous off-book items).
In addition to other reclassifications, tomorrow’s budget could include:
Acceleration of capital projects already announced under ONSAF (e.g., North Warning System, Arctic mobility, ammunition production);
Money for a bonafide Canadian Defence Industrial Strategy and a line item for Europe’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE) ;
Multi-year procurement and industrial spending envelopes, possibly involving the Strategic Innovation Fund, NORAD modernization, or munitions co-production with the U.S. and allies, or even submarines.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has made 2% a hard commitment, so that’s why this budget may be the first in years where defence genuinely features as a headline item.
European allies will be watching closely - not for what’s promised, but for what’s actually appropriated. Economists are also cautious about the defence sector.
Note: If you’re reading this EOD Nov 4th, this might have already transpired. But the newsletter has to go out Nov 3rd , if you were studious don’t say you weren’t well prepared!
Submarine Day
TKMS wrapped up their week (including supplier days which concluded in Toronto) in Canada laying out an industrial offer to build initial batches in Germany, and follow-on batches of submarines in Canada. And a cheeky reference to being the Senator’s Sub.
Korea’s Hanwha then played host to Canada’s Prime Minister. Check out the Battle for the Subs in the Ottawa Citizen.
While the nation’s finances will be updated Nov 4th in one part of Ottawa, Vanguard will host its annual DeepBlue 2025, Canada’s only submarine-focused event at the other end of downtown.
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Other Canada-Europe defence news:
Defence Minister David McGuinty outlined Canada’s ambitious spending plan to reach 2% as well as submarine procurement. Several testimonies took place before the Standing Committee on Industry and Technology ahead of the defence industrial strategy. It was revealed that the Canadian Armed Forces were starting a mobilization plan to 400,000.
Canada cancelled plans to donate refurbished armour to Ukraine: defence minister.
Ontario is heading to Germany for a trade mission.
Ottawa-Gatineau revealed their Defence Innovation Hub ahead of Canada’s Budget 2025 and Defence Industrial Strategy.
France’s GICAT (an association grouping major French land sector companies) held a France–Canada Defense Industry Forum and B2B event for 20 French companies at the French Embassy in Ottawa, touting increased cooperation and partnerships between both nations.
Germany and the United Kingdom settled on using OCCAR to contract General Dynamics Land Systems Europe (GDELS) to provide new M3 amphibious bridging capabilities. Canada has several defence bridging programs in the works for several years.
Brussels and London accelerated negotiations to incorporate the United Kingdom into Rearm Europe. A deal is imminent and could show what lies ahead for Canada.
Portugal was featured again this year in the Canadian Defence Review Vol 31-Iss 5
Including Portuguese greats such as EID and Beyond Vision.
Your next bound:
Canadian defence events:
Vanguard’s DeepBlue 2025 - the only submarine focused event - takes place Nov 4 in Ottawa.
Naval Québec Annual Conference will be held Dec 1 in Québec.
Register for Vanguard’s annual C4ISR conference Jan 27 in Ottawa.
European defence events:
NATO hosts its Industry Forum Nov 5-6, in Bucharest.
The Canadian embassy in Germany is hosting Canada and Germany: Partners in Securing Economic Growth Through the Defence Sector Nov 20.
International Armoured Vehicles Conference takes place in London (United Kingdom) on Jan 21-23.
Navy Tech and Seabed Defence Navy Tech Overview - Navy Leaders
ITEC 2026, Europe’s largest defence training technology exhibition and technical conference Mar 25-27.
Undersea defence technology (UDT) takes place Apr 14-16 in London (United Kingdom).
Canada-European free-trade
The Canada EU Economic Chamber launched registration for its annual event in Brussels taking place Nov 27.
Critical Minerals:
The Ontario Critical Minerals Forum is coming to Toronto Nov 18-19.
Deutsche Gold Messe takes place in Frankfurt Nov 14-15, registration closes Friday.
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